Thread: Iowa Caucus
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Old 02-13-2020, 06:42 PM
Publius Publius is offline
 
Join Date: Nov 2019
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kitsune9tails View Post
I am curious as to the historical data on how the top 4 in Iowa have previously finished over the past 16 years...
Here is a quick reference site for you. Just change the options on the left to see how everyone finished.

Since 2000:

Republican
2000: Bush (nominee)
2004: Bush (nominee - he ran unopposed for the nomination)
2008: Huckabee (McCain was nominee - he came in fourth in Iowa)
2012: Santorum (Romney was nominee - he came in second in Iowa)
2016: Cruz (Trump was nominee - he came in second in iowa)

Democrats

2000: Gore (nominee)
2004: Kerry (nominee)
2008: Obama (nominee)
2012: Obama (nominee - he ran unopposed for the nomination)
2016: Clinton (nominee)

For Republicans, they got two out of five right, but one of those was Bush running without an opponent, so it probably shouldn't be counted. Essentially it got 1 out of 4 right, and at the time it got the first one right most people thought they were out of their minds and that opponent was laughable.

For Democrats Iowa seems almost prescient, getting four out of four correct (Obama ran against no one once).

I think there is more correlation here than causation.

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although I think that changes in tech will largely diminish the relevance of that data.
How so?

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Something some talking heads on the Internet have been saying is that if the underlying data from Iowa is known (it probably hasn't been straightened out yet), then the release of the partial data could easily have been curated to create false impressions: a targeted Iowa bump as it were. I am filing that under 'unlikely but plausible'.
It's flat out ridiculous.

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It also reflects upon the Electoral College process.
How so?

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The main negative effect is on voter confidence, which could act as effective voter suppression, not to mention the flurry of lawsuits that will be launched in January 2021 whoever wins.

Someone needs to do something big to restore confidence in the voting process itself, and that someone will not be --cannot be-- the President.
This is interesting. Who and how do you think this could be accomplished? Maybe this should be a different thread.
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